Peak Season 2026: Capacity checklist for your fulfilment ahead of Black Friday

Stand: Oktober 2026 · Lesezeit: ca. 12 Minuten

From 23 November to 6 December 2026, DHL Paket will charge its business customers an additional 50 cents per consignment. This so-called ‘Peak-in-Peak’ surcharge is on top of the regular peak surcharge, which applies throughout November and December. The parcel service is therefore charging separately for Black Week and Cyber Week, as it expects these periods to see the highest volumes of the year.

The same thing happens at your warehouse over those same two weeks. The only difference is that there’s no bonus to cover the extra work. When capacity is insufficient, there are backlogs, overtime and delayed parcels.

This article is a capacity checklist for the Peak Season 2026. It is aimed at online retailers with their own warehouses and at retailers who work with a fulfilment service provider. It covers throughput, staffing, storage space and dispatch. We will cover discount strategies, campaign planning, LUCID registration and the ban on destruction in a separate article: 10 things for Black Friday.

Contents

• Timetable: What should be checked and by when
• Step 1: Calculate the order peak using your own data
• Step 2: Check daily capacity and backlog
• Step 3: Planning staffing levels
• Step 4: Stock reserves, goods receipt and replenishment
• Step 5: Parcel services, collection and surcharges
• Step 6: Returns in December and January
• Step 7: Systems and interfaces
• Questions for your fulfilment provider
• What’s still on in October
• The checklist to tick off
• Frequently Asked Questions

Peak Season 2026: Timetable for the capacity review

An overview of the dates for 2026: Black Friday is on Friday 27 November. Cyber Monday follows on 30 November. Many retailers launch their promotions a few days beforehand, so the DHL period starting on 23 November coincides well with the phase in which order numbers rise.

The table below shows when each test is recommended. The timeframes are guidelines based on practical experience; they are not fixed deadlines. Your own delivery times and lead times take precedence.

Period	What’s coming up	Why at this point in time?
July to August	Forecast based on previous year’s data, orders for seasonal goods, discussion with the fulfilment service provider	Goods from the Far East often take several months to arrive by sea freight, including production time
September	Enquire about staff, order packing materials, arrange a collection with parcel delivery services	Staffing agencies and packaging suppliers will be working at full capacity from October onwards
Bis 21.10.2026 (nur Amazon FBA)	Ware in Amazons europäischen Logistikzentren angeliefert	Voraussetzung für das Prime-Badge in der Black-Friday-Woche
October	Capacity calculation, trial shift, reallocating storage locations, system tests	There is still time to resolve any bottlenecks
Until mid-November	Complete goods receipt, train temporary staff, halt system changes	From 23 November, the entrance and exit will be competing for the same people and ramps
23 November to 6 December 2026	Busy periods with a daily check on the backlog	Record order volumes and a ‘peak-in-peak’ surcharge at DHL
December	View the final dispatch dates before Christmas in the shop	Parcel delivery services publish their own cut-off dates
January	Process returns, reconcile stock	Returns from the Christmas sales season are coming back in batches

Step 1: Calculate the order peak using your own data

The German Retail Association forecast turnover of 5.8 billion euros for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025. This was just under 2 per cent less than the previous year and the first decline since the survey began in 2016. This figure means little for your warehouse. What matters there is how many orders you receive on your busiest day.

This figure can be found in your shop system. Export the daily order receipts for November and December 2025. Use the order date, not the dispatch date; otherwise, you will only see what your warehouse has processed, not what has actually arrived.

Calculating the peak factor

Divide the number of orders on your busiest day by the number of orders on a typical day in October. The result is your peak factor. If, in October 2025, you had an average of 800 orders per day and 2,600 on Black Friday, the factor is 3.25.

Then work your way forward:

• Normal daily volume for October 2026 multiplied by the peak factor from 2025
• Plus factors that weren’t present in 2025: new marketplaces, larger campaigns, a higher discount
• Negative effects that are no longer a factor: discontinued product ranges or channels

Work through three scenarios: low, expected and high. The high scenario is the one you should base your staffing and packing materials on. If the marketing department is planning newsletter send-outs or influencer campaigns, make a separate note of those dates. A newsletter sent out on a Tuesday could create a second peak where you weren’t expecting one.

Check the order structure as well

Orders are not a fixed unit. An order with five items takes a picker considerably longer to complete than one with just one item. You should therefore compare the average number of items per order during Black Week 2025 with that of a normal month. If there is a noticeable change in this figure, calculate your capacity in terms of items rather than orders.

Step 2: Check daily capacity and backlog

The daily capacity of your warehouse can be estimated using a simple formula:

Number of staff × productive hours × jobs per hour = jobs per day

Productive hours are less than the length of a shift. For an 8-hour shift, at least 30 minutes are taken up by statutory breaks, plus set-up times, team meetings and travel time. You should base the number of orders per hour on data from your WMS or time-tracking system, not on a hunch.

Apply this formula to each stage of the process individually: picking, packing, labelling and loading. The slowest stage determines the capacity of the entire warehouse. In small warehouses, this is often the packing table, as there is a lack of additional workstations there, even if there are enough pickers.

Calculation example: How a back-up occurs

A fictional shop processes 2,450 orders per day: 10 staff members, 7 productive hours, 35 orders per hour. Half the team works on Saturdays; the warehouse is closed on Sundays. The input figures are assumed.

Day	New orders	Capacity	Behind in the evening
Fri 27 Nov (Black Friday)	2.860	2.450	410
Sat 28 Nov.	1.900	1.200	1.110
Sun 29 Nov.	1.700	0	2.810
Mon 30 Nov (Cyber Monday)	2.400	2.450	2.760
Tue, 1 Dec.	1.500	2.450	1.810
Wed 2 Dec.	1.200	2.450	560
Thu, 3 Dec.	1.000	2.450	0

On Friday, there are only 410 orders outstanding. That seems manageable. Over the weekend, however, the backlog grows to over 2,800 orders, and on Cyber Monday, almost as many new orders come in as the warehouse processes. In this scenario, an order placed on Friday evening won’t be dispatched until Wednesday.

If your shop promises „dispatch within 24 hours“, this table shows you how many customers are not having that promise fulfilled. You then have three options: increasing capacity, introducing a Saturday shift or an extra shift, or providing an honest delivery time estimate in the shop for the promotional week.

How large the buffer should be

A flat percentage figure is of little help here. Instead, look at how far your forecast for 2025 deviated from the actual volume. If you were 20 per cent too low, your capacity buffer should cover at least this deviation. If you did not have a forecast for 2025, plan using the higher figure from step 1.

Step 3: Planning staffing levels

Hiring more staff is the obvious solution. However, there are limitations to this approach, which you should be aware of beforehand.

What the Working Hours Act permits

The Working Hours Act (ArbZG) imposes stricter limits on overtime than many retailers realise:

• Working hours on a working day must not exceed 8 hours. An extension to up to 10 hours is permitted provided that, on average over a period of six calendar months or 24 weeks, 8 hours per working day are not exceeded (Section 3 of the Working Hours Act (ArbZG)).
• A 30-minute break is compulsory after more than 6 hours’ work, and a 45-minute break after more than 9 hours (Section 4 of the Working Hours Act).
• There must be a rest period of at least 11 hours between two shifts (Section 5 of the Working Hours Act).
• As a general rule, work is prohibited on Sundays and public holidays (Section 9 of the Working Hours Act). Exceptions are strictly defined and require legal scrutiny.

Under the law, working days are defined as Monday to Saturday. A Saturday shift is therefore possible, whereas working on a Sunday for standard dispatch work is not usually permitted. This is why, in the calculation example above, the Monday following Black Friday is the day with the highest backlog. You should also check your collective agreement and works agreements, as these may contain more specific rules.

Temporary staff and agency work

Staffing agencies often allocate their staff for November as early as September and October. Ask specifically about the number of staff, the first day of work, and whether the same staff will remain throughout the peak period. Temporary staff who change frequently need to be trained from scratch each time.

New staff do not perform at the same level as your permanent staff during their first few days. The best way to gauge the extent of the difference is to arrange a trial shift in October or early November. When calculating your capacity, use the measured output for temporary staff, not that of your permanent staff.

Allow for downtime

November and December are part of the cold and flu season. Use your 2025 staff data to work out the sickness absence rate for these weeks and plan accordingly, taking into account the reduced number of staff available. You should also set a holiday ban for the peak weeks well in advance and communicate this in good time.

Step 4: Stock reserves, goods receipt and replenishment

Complete goods receipt before the peak

A common mistake: seasonal stock arrives at the end of November, just when every pair of hands is needed in the dispatch department. A container that has to be unloaded and put into storage on Black Friday takes up hours that are then missing from the packing line.

Please plan large deliveries so that they are in stock and can be entered into the system by mid-November. Agree fixed delivery slots with suppliers and request delivery notifications. The shop cannot sell goods that are in stock but have not yet been entered into the system.

Wer zusätzlich über Amazon FBA verkauft, hat eine frühere Frist: Die Ware muss bis 21. Oktober 2026 in Amazons europäischen Logistikzentren eingetroffen sein, damit sie in der Black-Friday-Woche für das Prime-Badge qualifiziert ist. Planen Sie diese Sendungen getrennt vom übrigen Wareneingang.

Check stock levels

Calculate your peak stock levels: current stock plus planned deliveries up to the peak, minus expected sales up to that point. Compare this with your available storage spaces and shelving.

A full warehouse slows things down. When goods are moved into aisles or onto temporary storage areas, the time taken to locate and put away stock increases. Your data from 2025 will show at what stock level this starts to happen for you: on which day did put-away and picking become measurably slower? If there isn’t enough space, you’ll need to secure an alternative storage area in good time or temporarily move slow-moving stock out of the warehouse.

Fast-moving items and restocking

During peak week, a large proportion of orders tend to be concentrated on just a few items. You can see which ones these are in your 2025 Black Week analysis and in the planned promotional items for 2026.

There is a simple rule for these items: the picking station should hold enough stock to cover the demand for a full peak day. If a station has to be restocked from the reserve three times a day, pickers are left standing in front of empty bins whilst someone else is driving to fetch more stock. Also, place promotional items as close as possible to the packing stations. This reduces walking distances for each individual order.

Kitting vor dem Peak

Sets und Bundles, die Sie in der Aktionswoche verkaufen, lassen sich im Oktober vorkonfektionieren. Ein Geschenkset aus drei Artikeln ist dann im Lager ein fertiger Artikel: ein Pick statt drei, und der Packtisch muss nichts mehr zusammenstellen. In der Black Week spart das bei jedem Set-Auftrag Zeit, und zwar genau in den Tagen, in denen Zeit am knappsten ist.

Zwei Dinge gehören dazu. Das fertige Set braucht eine eigene Artikelnummer in Shop und WMS. Und die Einzelteile im Set stehen für den Einzelverkauf nicht mehr zur Verfügung. Legen Sie die Menge deshalb nach der niedrigen oder erwarteten Prognose aus Schritt 1 fest, nicht nach der hohen. Sets wieder aufzulösen kostet ebenfalls Arbeitszeit.

Packaging materials and consumables

Cardboard boxes, packing materials, adhesive tape, dispatch labels, delivery note paper, printer ribbons: Calculate your consumption based on the high forecast from Step 1 and place your order well in advance. Packaging suppliers are themselves in their peak season in the run-up to Christmas. A shortage of a particular type of cardboard box can bring an entire packing line to a standstill.

Prüfen Sie auch Beilagen wie Flyer, Gutscheinkarten oder Geschenkverpackung: Jede kostet pro Paket ein paar Sekunden. Bei 2.860 Aufträgen am Tag werden aus 5 Sekunden pro Paket fast 4 Stunden Arbeitszeit.

The obligations regarding packaging registration and other legal matters are set out in our article 10 things for Black Friday.

Step 5: Parcel services, collection and surcharges

Take the 2026 surcharges into account

DHL has published the dates for 2026. The ‘Peak-in-Peak’ surcharge of 50 cents per consignment will apply from 23 November to 6 December 2026. This surcharge is levied in addition to the regular peak surcharge, which applies during November and December and was most recently 19 cents per consignment. Services affected include DHL Parcel, DHL Small Parcel, DHL Parcel International, DHL Europarcel and returns services.

Here’s an example: anyone sending 20,000 parcels via DHL during the peak-in-peak period will pay an additional 13,800 euros in these two surcharges alone (20,000 × 0.69 euros). Other parcel services such as GLS, DPD and Hermes also charge seasonal surcharges, the amounts of which are often specified individually in the contract. Ask your contact person for the exact figures and time periods applicable to your contract.

Clarify collection capacity

A parcel that’s already been packed is of no use if it isn’t collected. Before the peak period, check with each parcel service:

• How many consignments are collected during a regular collection, and from what quantity is an additional collection or a swap body required?
• Will collection times change during the peak period?
• Does the contract specify any volume limits or quotas for November and December?
• Who should you contact if a collection is cancelled?

Your dispatch deadline at the warehouse depends on the last collection. If the lorry arrives at 5.00 pm, everything must be ready for loading by 4.30 pm. Calculate your capacity up to that time, not until the end of the shift.

Arrange a second parcel delivery service

If you only use one parcel delivery service, you have no alternative in the event of collection suspensions or service disruptions. However, you cannot simply switch to a second service provider on Black Friday. The contract, label printing from the WMS, and the interface with the online shop for parcel tracking: all of this must be tested in advance.

Last dispatch dates before Christmas

Every year, parcel delivery services publish cut-off dates by which delivery before Christmas Eve is realistic. Check these dates for 2026 as soon as they are available, and factor in your internal processing time beforehand. Display the resulting order deadline prominently in your shop.

Step 6: Returns in December and January

More orders in November mean more returns in December and January. Many retailers also extend the returns period for Christmas shopping, which means returns continue well into January.

There are two points to bear in mind when planning capacity:

• Returns received by mid-December can be used as stock for the Christmas sales. If they are left unprocessed, the goods will be missing from the shop.
• Temporary contracts often come to an end in January, just as the wave of returns reaches its peak. Make sure you allow for this by planning for your own staff.

Für Rücksendungen, die sich nicht mehr verkaufen lassen, gelten seit 2026 neue EU-Vorgaben zur Vernichtung. Welche Händler und Produktgruppen betroffen sind, steht in unserem Beitrag EU ban on the destruction of returned goods: What online retailers need to know in 2026.

Calculate the expected volume of returns using your 2025 returns rate and the order forecast from step 1. Please also note that the DHL surcharges for the peak period also apply to DHL returns if you are responsible for the return costs.

Step 7: Systems and interfaces

A failure in the interface between the shop and the warehouse management system brings dispatch to a standstill, even if there are enough staff. Please check the following by the end of October:

• Does the Shop-to-WMS interface handle the order volume of your high forecast? Ask your service provider or developer to carry out a load test.
• Are label printing and dispatch data being sent to all parcel services without any errors?
• Wie oft gleicht das WMS den Bestand mit Shop und Marktplätzen ab? Läuft der Abgleich nur stündlich, kann eine starke Aktionsstunde Ware verkaufen, die längst weg ist. Kürzere Intervalle oder ein Sicherheitsbestand, der für Aktionsartikel nicht online angezeigt wird, verhindern Überverkäufe.
• Are there replacements for label printers and handheld scanners, and are the relevant consumables in stock?
• When does the freeze on changes to the shop, WMS and interfaces come into effect? Introducing new plugins or updates a week before Black Friday is an avoidable risk.

You should also specify who can be contacted in the event of a system failure at the weekend. A telephone number that nobody answers on Saturdays is of no use in an emergency.

Questions for your fulfilment provider

If a service provider runs your warehouse, the issue of capacity shifts, but it does not disappear. During peak periods, the service provider serves many retailers at the same time. You should have answered the following questions before November:

• What order volume is the service provider planning for your shop, and on what basis?
• By when must you submit your forecast, and what happens if you are significantly above it?
• What are the contractually agreed delivery times during the peak period, and do they differ from those during normal operations?
• By when must goods be delivered to ensure they are stored before 23 November?
• Which peak-period surcharges applied by parcel delivery services are passed on to you, and in what amounts?
• How are returns processed in January, and within what timeframe?

In most cases, it does not make sense to change fulfilment providers just a few weeks before Black Friday. Moving stock, integrating systems and staff training all take time, and many providers stop accepting new clients shortly before the peak period. Anyone considering a switch should plan it for the first quarter of 2027, giving them sufficient lead time before the next peak season.

What’s still on in October

If you are reading this article in October 2026, there will be around seven weeks to go until Black Friday. By then, some of the measures in the schedule will no longer be realistic: warehouse relocations, a new WMS or reorders involving long sea freight transit times. Many others, however, will still be feasible. In this order:

1. Calculate the peak factor for 2025 and draw up the backlog table for your shop. This takes half a day and shows just how big the gap is.
2. Book temporary staff or agency workers on a binding basis and schedule a trial shift.
3. Arranging a collection with parcel delivery services: collection times, additional collections, surcharges.
4. Order packaging materials to cater for the high forecast.
5. Schedule deliveries so that goods receipt is completed by mid-November.
6. Check the storage locations of the promotional items and move them.
7. Sets und Bundles für die Aktionswoche vorkonfektionieren.
8. FBA-Sendungen so abschicken, dass sie bis 21. Oktober bei Amazon eintreffen.
9. Set a change freeze for the shop and systems.
10. Adjust the delivery time information in the shop for the promotional week if the backlog report indicates delays.

The checklist to tick off

Die Punkte aus diesem Artikel in Kurzform. Eine ausführlichere Fassung finden Sie in unserer Checkliste für Black Friday und Cyber Monday.

Forecast

• ☐ Daily order intake for November and December 2025 exported
• ☐ Peak factor calculated
• ☐ Three scenarios for 2026 (low, expected, high) have been drawn up
• ☐ Marketing campaign dates entered
• ☐ Positions per order compared with a typical month

Capacity and staff

• ☐ Capacity calculated for each process step; bottleneck identified
• ☐ Backlog table for Black Friday up to the following Thursday has been drawn up
• ☐ Buffer derived from the forecast deviation for 2025
• ☐ Temporary staff booked, working days confirmed
• ☐ Trial shift carried out; performance of new staff assessed
• ☐ Shift rota checked (Working Hours Act, collective agreement, works agreement)
• ☐ Holiday ban communicated

Warehouse

• ☐ Deliveries scheduled until mid-November
• ☐ FBA-Ware bis 21. Oktober bei Amazon angeliefert (falls relevant)
• ☐ Peak stock levels have been reconciled with available storage spaces
• ☐ Picking stations for promotional items can handle a peak day
• ☐ Promotional items stored close to the packing stations
• ☐ Sets und Bundles vorkonfektioniert, eigene Artikelnummern angelegt
• ☐ Zeitaufwand für Beilagen und Geschenkverpackung eingerechnet
• ☐ Packaging materials for the high forecast in stock

Deliveries, Returns, Systems

• ☐ 2026 surcharges for all parcel delivery services calculated
• ☐ Collection times and additional collections agreed
• ☐ Second parcel delivery service tested
• ☐ Last-minute pre-Christmas dispatch dates have been scheduled in the shop
• ☐ Staff scheduled for returns in January
• ☐ Interfaces tested, spare units available
• ☐ Intervall des Bestandsabgleichs zu Shop und Marktplätzen geprüft
• ☐ Change freeze and emergency contacts defined

Have your warehouse inspected ahead of the 2026 peak season

In most cases, the backlog calculation quickly reveals where the bottlenecks lie: with staff, at the packing station, at collection or in the goods-in department. The more difficult question is which measure will make the biggest difference in the time remaining.

If you’d like to go through your figures with someone who’s familiar with the peak periods in day-to-day warehouse operations, Please speak to one of our fulfilment specialists. We’ll look at your forecasts, capacity and dispatch together and determine whether your current set-up can cope with the 2026 peak season or where you need to make adjustments.

Regarding the commercial aspect of the promotional days: 10 things for Black Friday.

Frequently asked questions about the 2026 peak season

When is Black Friday 2026?

Black Friday falls on Friday 27 November 2026. Cyber Monday is on 30 November. Many retailers launch their promotions in the days leading up to these dates, which is why parcel delivery services such as DHL consider Black Week to be a peak period from 23 November onwards.

How much will the DHL surcharges be during the 2026 peak season?

For business customers, a peak surcharge per consignment applies in November and December; the most recent rate was 19 cents. From 23 November to 6 December 2026, a ‘peak-in-peak’ surcharge of 50 cents per consignment will also apply. These surcharges also apply to returns and small parcels. The details set out in your contract and on DHL’s surcharge page take precedence.

How do I work out whether my warehouse can cope with Black Friday?

Calculate the peak factor from your 2025 data, i.e. the number of orders on the busiest day divided by the number on a normal day. Multiply your current daily volume by this figure and compare the result with your daily capacity (staff × productive hours × orders per hour). A table covering the days from Friday to Thursday shows how long a backlog will persist.

Is my warehouse allowed to operate on the Sunday after Black Friday?

Generally speaking, no. The Working Hours Act prohibits work on Sundays and public holidays; exceptions are strictly limited. Saturdays, on the other hand, are considered working days. You should have any special arrangements reviewed by a legal expert on a case-by-case basis.

When should I start preparing for the peak season?

For purchasing goods with long delivery times in the summer, and for staff and packaging materials in September. Capacity planning, trial shifts and system tests can still be carried out easily in October. Goods receipt should be completed by mid-November.

Is it worth switching to a fulfilment service provider just before Black Friday?

In most cases, no. The migration of goods, system integration and staff training take several weeks, and many service providers do not take on new clients shortly before the peak period. It is better to plan a switch for the first quarter.